Wind Forecast for L.A. Fires Was Weaker Than Expected, but Could Pick Up Wednesday

Meteorologists get it wrong sometimes.

Thankfully, when they got a Los Angeles weather forecast wrong this week, it was because the winds were weaker than predicted on Tuesday and no longer met the National Weather Service’s criteria for a “particularly dangerous situation.” The phrase describes a rare, high-level warning that is meant to be used only every few years for the worst possible wildfire conditions of dried vegetation, low humidity and strong winds.

Just a week ago, at the start of a cycle of four Santa Ana wind events that have overtaken the region since then, the forecast warned of a “particularly dangerous” wildfire outlook, with a windstorm of a strength not seen in over a decade. That forecast was realized when the Palisades fire, the Eaton fire and other blazes sent Los Angeles residents fleeing from their homes as a torrent of winds pushed fires raging through their neighborhoods.

Weather Service meteorologists make their forecasts based on a combination of current conditions, historical events and computer weather models. They take all this information in and then forecast what they think is the most likely outcome. There are always outliers, conditions that could occur but are less likely.

Sometimes, a storm will overperform the forecast, and sometimes it will under perform. In meteorology, both eventualities are considered “busted forecasts.” While forecasters who predict an especially extreme event might be happy if the conditions aren’t as bad as they had predicted, they know that if the forecast is off by too much, people will trust future warnings a little less.

James Brotherton, a meteorologist with the Weather Service in Los Angeles, said he would much rather have a forecast be wrong if it meant there was “less pain and suffering.”